Rob AriasWhile few are calling it with 100% certainty, Oakland Council President Nikki Fortunato Bas appears to have completed her comeback win over Emeryville City Councilmember John Bauters after an agonizingly long and close ballot count.
Bauters finished “Election Night” with a roughly 7% advantage over Bas (Election Night in quotes because elections are no longer decided overnight due to the proliferation and preference for Mail-in ballots).
Bas chipped away with every successive update and 10 days later, overtook Bauters by 106 votes. She furthered that lead to 415 votes with yesterday’s final major update.
Bauters barely captured a majority in Emeryville (53%-46%) but easily carried Bas’ D2 (61%-39%).
Graphs: @OaklandReportCa via X.
Bas exercised some caution when claiming victory tweeting “Today, it appears that District 5 voters have selected me as their next representative to the Alameda County Board of Supervisors.”
Today, it appears that District 5 voters have selected me as their next representative to the Alameda County Board of Supervisors.
— Nikki Fortunato Bas (@Nikkiforallofus) November 21, 2024
The only glimmer of hope for Bauters is the approximately 5000 mail-in ballots that election officials are still “curing” due to missing or non-matching signatures. It is extremely unlikely that he could make up for the 415 vote deficit from this small pool of ballots.
Alameda County has until December 5th to officially certify the election.
Oakland, already facing fiscal insolvency, will now be tasked with holding an expensive special election to fill Bas’ District 2 seat.
Bauters has gone mysteriously silent on the X platform in the past two weeks since Election Night and has not yet publicly conceded. After posting on 11/7 that he was off hiking in the desert for his mental health, he surfaced briefly to criticize the selection of Matt Gaetz as the U.S. Attorney General.
Just a quick hello from a restorative multi-day trip hiking in the desert to remind you that your mental health matters and time in nature is a great way to promote your mental wellness. #GoOutside today. Bring a friend! 🌵 pic.twitter.com/soHDJd8Lei
— John J. Bauters (@JohnBauters) November 7, 2024
A Brutally Negative & Expensive Campaign
Bas handily won the March Primary with 34% of the vote. Bauters came in a respectable second with just over 20.7% in the nine-person race.
Bauters seemed positioned for an upset when the only reputable poll conducted by the Oakland Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce showed him with a commanding 16% lead.
Bas fired the first shots in their head-to-head campaign by publishing the attack website truthaboutbauters.com which attempted to portray Bauters as “anti-labor” and foster distrust with him.
Bauters’ IEC fired back by creating their own attack website and ad targeting Bas’ efforts to defund the Oakland police and the city’s ongoing issues with Public Safety.
As expected, John Bauters’ IEC has landed a “counterpunch” following the launch of an attack website against him with a site of their own spotlighting rival candidate Nikki Fortunato Bas’ attempted “defund” policies calling her a “total failure” as an Oakland councilmember. pic.twitter.com/YLUgnOZS0i
— The E'ville Eye News (@TheEvilleEye) October 1, 2024
With a race as close as this one, it could have boiled down to any number of things that could have tipped the scales. Both candidates received their share of negativity with recall and Public Safety advocates targeting Bas. Bauters felt the wrath of Labor groups, particularly for his involvement in an attempted pause of minimum wage increases for local food service businesses that were struggling to adapt to the city’s highest in the nation wage ordinance.
Bas’ opposition to the recalls of Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao and D. A. Pamela Price seemed to be a liability for her but apparently not enough to considerably drag her down.
Both candidates attempted to connect with voters through their personal stories. Bas told her personal story of growing up the daughter of immigrants and being a victim of sexual assault. Bauters told his own of growing up a gay teen in a rural, midwestern town and being “housing insecure” during his college years.
The election was also an extremely expensive one with both candidates approaching half a million in fundraising according to an August tally by The Oaklandside. The final combined totals are expected to exceed 1.5 million in total campaign fundraising.
Bas was heavily funded by powerful labor organizations known for their ability to mobilize voters.
Bauters may have invited some distrust by receiving funding from Police & Sheriff’s unions (most through the IEC supporting his campaign), the Crypto and Cannabis Industries, and YIMBY-aligned developer groups.
What’s Next for Bauters?
Bauters could not run for two offices concurrently and was forced to relinquish his seat on Emeryville City Council. He will officially become a private citizen on December 10th when newly elected councilmember Matthew Solomon is sworn in in Council chambers.
The 44-year-old Bauters could come back in 2026 to run for Emeryville City Council again and wait for the next political opportunity. He would likely be running against rival Kalimah Priforce and the bad blood between the two might provide Bauters the motivation he needs to re-enter politics.
His talents on Council, particularly with navigating budgets, will be sorely missed with some likely difficult discussions looming next year.
If Bauters opts not to run again, his biggest legacy in Emeryville will likely be his efforts to prioritize bicycle infrastructure and eventually his efforts on the Measure C Affordable Housing Bond which has yet to bear fruit.
Bauters’ professional background is as a lobbyist and policy director.
NOTE: We have updated the final totals for the City Council and School Board races
Who decided to use an AI-generated image at the top of the article? It looks awful.
As an Oakland resident, I can confirm that Nikki is (as Bauters correctly mentioned) a total failure. She and her cronies in the “squad” (Fife, Thao, Kalb, and Kaplan) bankrupted the city by making foolish business deals and fiscal decisions. When Hamas murdered and kidnapped Israeli civilians on Oct. 7, Nikki rallied for a cease fire resolution. Simultaneously, Oakland was struggling with murders, gun battles, and lawlessness. How could a city with no control within its own borders believe it has any credibility? With virtue signaling and identity politics? That may work with Nikki’s brain dead supporters, but not in geopolitics.
Crime and homelessness are still raging out of control despite all of the extraneous tax bills and violence prevention measures Nikki touted.
Nikki is silent when Asian elders are attacked in the streets of Oakland. She only speaks at photo ops and street renaming events and is masterful at avoiding controversy. Her contributions as city council president and a so-called leader are dubious at best.
I find electing anyone from Oakland to a higher office, particularly as county supervisor with a multi-billion dollar budget a great mystery. San Leandro Street – garbage strewn for MILES, Oakland West BART station – a long-term homeless encampment next to the BART station with (amazing!) Oakland parking enforcement regularly patrolling – seeing nothing but opportunities to hand out $90+ over 2 hr parking violation tickets (as if this is relevant) Telegraph Avenue – a disgrace with a burgeoning population of unsheltered folks living in tents or just on the sidewalk next to medical facilities. Ambulance response times: 40 minutes . . . Police response times: who knows? In other words, someone who couldn’t flex their own city now responsible for many.
That is ridiculous. I sure hope those votes yet to be checked turn this election result topsy turvy.
It is ridiculous. And to any of the naysayers, there’s a reason PG&E crews in Oakland are accompanied by armed security guards courtesy of Triple Canopy. Because as Thao and Nikki claimed, “CrImE iS gOiNg DoWn! OaKlAnD iZ sAfE!!1” and “911 aNsWeReD iN 5…000,000,000 sEcOnDz, TaXeS aT wErK”
Nikki Bas, Brian Donahue and Kalimah Priforce did a great job orchestrating a smear campaign against Bauters during the mail in ballot period. Nikki’s attack website was basically the Emeryville Tattler.
It’s an intimidating time to be involved in Emeryville politics. If you’re against Priforce, Donahue will trail and tail. Donahue spoke 5 times at the last city council meeting to criticize Courtney Welch. How can normal citizens and elected officials withstand against bullying and harassment?
Bauters did a great job. He was double digits away during March primary, and lost by a hundred votes in November despite the smear campaign.
Bauters did a great job of losing.
Sh*tty race but pleased to see the unethical pr*ck, Bauters lose once more.
Loved how he used the $50 million dollar housing bond as a campaign prop. He’s never realized Emeryville as a small city, always trying to punch above it’s own weight. His actions have led the city to its own disastrous financial situation. The guy couldn’t balance his own checkbook, let alone Emeryville’s.
If he really wanted to help our community, suggest he move. However, a Nixon type resurrection for him may be on the horizon.
Hi Brian. Have you ever gotten the feeling that nobody likes you?
Oakland is bankrupt.
Probably for the best.
Please communicate using standard vocabulary that is not vulgar and offensive. thank you. I hope vulgar comments are moderated.
Why would Bas’ opposition to the recall have been a “liability” and “drag her down”? While the recall of Price passed, Berkeley, Emeryville, and West Oakland overwhelmingly voted against the recall. D5 voters didn’t support the recall. If anything, it would have helped her to oppose something that 60% of D5 voters were opposing. Bauters pretended to be against the recall sometimes when in front of progressives because our district is left-leaning.