Rob AriasA recent SF Chronicle report provided some concerning data regarding Emeryville home values. According to the report, Emeryville is one of only two cities in the Bay Area that has seen a decline in home values since the 2020 pandemic.
While San Francisco has seen a 3% decline in median home values since 2019 according to Zillow data, Emeryville has seen a 12% decline over this same span. This drop is being driven by 15.6% drop in value of condominiums over the past five years, falling from a median $568,000 in 2019 to $479,000 today.
Single-family homes in Emeryville have been less impacted and saw a 10.5% increase in value during the same period, rising to $742,000 (the accuracy of Zillow’s home value estimates, AKA “Zestimates,” have been questioned by some).
Emeryville “A Perfect Storm”?
This decline seems to driven be a perfect storm of higher interest rates, spiking HOA dues, Insurance rates, and shifting consumer desires.
While most of these market forces aren’t exclusive to Emeryville, they are clearly impacting the city more than others in the Bay Area. Emeryville’s unique condo-heavy housing inventory seems to be what distinguishes it from other cities and the primary culprit in the overall decline.
88% of Emeryville’s housing stock is multifamily units according the city’s latest Housing Element report with 64% of these units being studio and one-bedroom units.
HOA Dues Continue to Climb
One big factor in the depreciation of condos is spiking HOA dues. These HOA increases are being driven by inflation and insurance costs among other things. More people working from home is also a factor driving up the use and costs of energy, waste, maintenance, and water among other things.
A separate Chronicle report notes that median HOAs in the Bay Area saw an increase from $550 in 2019 to $690 in 2024. This was the second highest among major metropolitan areas according to a recent Redfin report.
State law requires HOAs to keep a reserve fund to pay for repairs. Associations are always under pressure to keep monthly HOA fees low but this can come at the expense of having lower reserves. An unexpected expense can come with a special assessment to condo owners if reserve levels are not adequate.
Potential purchasers, if they know of a potential special assessment, will be reluctant to purchase units without factoring this into the cost.
Looming Insurance Crisis
The Chronicle also recently detailed issues with finding Homeowners insurance which is intertwined with property values and HOAs.
California’s ongoing home insurance crisis has complicated the condo market. Condo owners are facing soaring premiums, with some losing their policies altogether. These rising insurance costs often trickle down to homeowners association fees, making condo ownership less attractive.
Recently appointed Emeryville Mayor David Mourra, a condo owner who sits on his HOA’s board, notes that he has seen his association’s insurance costs go from $40,000 to $100,000 in the past 7 years.
News regarding homeowner insurance isn’t getting any better as Liberty Mutual, California’s fourth-largest home insurer, recently announced they are planning to exit the state’s condo and rental insurance markets in 2026.
The state has been slow to react but is actively formulating a plan under the guidance of State insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara to tackle this crisis.
Shifting Consumer Demand?
One of Emeryville’s key attributes has always been its proximity to job-centers. People can live close to SF and Oakland without living in SF and Oakland.
Emeryville consistently scores high in walkability indexes because of its proximity to retail, parks and transit options. Emeryville’s median home value of $513,000, because of its high inventory of condos, is the lowest in the San Francisco metropolitan area. This has traditionally made buying in Emeryville appealing to singles and young couples buying a “starter home.”
This paradigm clearly shifted in 2020. Untethered by their commutes, more residents fled to the suburbs seeking outdoor space, an extra room to convert to a home office and less congestion.
While most employers have mandated some form of a return to office, hybrid work appears here to stay and a full five day commute is less common making living further more bearable.
Local Realtors Weigh In
Some Realtors are optimistic that when the interest rates eventually drop, we should in turn see a return to a more “normal” market in Emeryville.
“Post COVID when interest rates were in the 2 to 3 percent range, home prices dramatically increased flooding the single family home market – which ultimately pushed many buyers who wanted a home and wanted to take advantage of low interest rates into the condo and townhome market,” provided Compass Realtor Chris Clark. “Now that interest rates are much higher, demand has flattened and those with means that want to are able to get into a single family home. They can be more selective.”
“Interest rates have recently dropped and I would expect to see some good news in 2025 for condo/townhome owners wanting to sell,” Clark Offered.
In the meantime, if owning a condominium is not going to come with the benefit of appreciation, equity and stability that traditionally comes with homeownership, this may make renting in Emeryville favorable for the foreseeable future.
Sorry, Rob, some of this article makes no sense since insurance rates are rising not just statewide but across the country following Florida’s Surfside collapse among other factors and Commissioner Lara has assigned bayside cities like Emeryville a high fire risk rating essentially broadening the base for higher insurance rates across more of the state when in actuality a bayside city has a much lower fire risk. Also what do you mean here? “Now that interest rates are much higher, more people that want to are able to get into a single family home.”
Thanks for your comment Fran. I massaged Chris’ quote to clarify what he meant.
The “struggle” is that the houses cost less?
The “struggle” is for recent buyers who scraped together a down payment to see their equity evaporate and everyone that is seeing their HOAs spike.
I’d say it’s also a struggle for those looking to buy with high interest rates and turmoil in the market.
We recently bought a condo this summer and struck out when we looked at emeryville. We had been renting on 64th street and just loved the area so much, but we couldn’t afford any of the places on the doyle walking trail, nor were there two bedroom units available in the tall building by public market. We had originally looked at water gate but they denied us because of our dog ( 60 pound lab) and said we’d have to pick her up in the common areas, like the halls.
HOA fees where we looked were astronomical—with a mortgage over $2,800 for most places not including insurance, property taxes, and HOA, not sure why most renters would want to change their fees to almost $5000 a month. It’s just not doable for most people, and we were definitely sold a lie of it with a realtor we originally had.
We ended up buying in Oakland, near the rose garden, but were very sad to leave Emeryville. Over a year of looking, we felt a bit crazy towards the end of it that there were so many options in emeryville but none actually worked.
Condos don’t “appreciate” as much as single family homes (which has land), but condos do and there’s still value for home equity. The interest rates make everything more expensive. Buyers will want to get more bang for their buck with SFH if they are going to use so much cash for downpayment. But there’s wayyyyyyy more competition in SFH and that also drives up the price.
If I had more cash on hand, this is a very good time to buy condos. The selling price is lower because most buyers use conventional loans or don’t buy with all cash.
The market will eventually course correct. People will still need housing and not everyone can afford million dollar single family homes nor is there enough stock.
Eventually, renters will see similar increase in living expense and they will eventually buy instead of rent. The insurance rates and HOA dues increase are going to eventually affect renters. Landlords will pass along the costs in the rent.
HOA are a mainstay across America and new developments will be HOAs.
Makes no sense. Buying will always be cheaper than renting. All the units being rented have rising insurance and utilities and landlords that pay high taxes. I’d rather own my own condo, than rent. But good try, trying to make people think throwing money towards rent is the way to go.
From today’s WSJ on the often prohibitively high cost of home ownership due to insurance and property taxes. A NATIONAL problem.https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/home-insurance-property-tax-vs-mortgage-cost-43ab76ed?st=bwAFWJ