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June 2019 Emeryville Real Estate Report: Bay Area Home Sales Hit “Recession Levels,” 3 BMR’s Hit the Market

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In our June, 2019 Emeryville Real Estate Report, we profile three City of Emeryville Below Market Rate (BMR) units that have recently hit the market. Meanwhile, a local news source is reporting that home sales have hit “recession levels” as prices and low inventory have buyers wary.

BMR’s Can Be A Sound Investment

The City of Emeryville BMR ownership program is a city program previously supported by redevelopment that incentivized developments over 10 units to include a percentage of units to be sold at below market-rate prices for those of lower and moderate incomes. No new ownership units have been added to the program in nearly a decade and the current BMR Ownership inventory sits at 226 units.

When existing units are resold, the sale price is calculated based on increases to the consumer price index or an updated Area Median Income adopted by HCD (depending on the agreement). Units must be resold to buyers who meet the City’s income requirements listed below.

Purchasing a BMR could be a sound investment compared to renting to those that qualify. One BMR seller, Ms. Sae-Tong, bought her newly-constructed Adeline Place BMR nine years ago for under $145,000. She is now able to resell it through the BMR program for $321,800 (a more than a 120% increase!).

“I really appreciate having an affordable place to live close by work without worrying about the rent going up or being displaced because a property is being sold by a landlord,” she noted. “The search for affordable housing has driven many of my friends to move farther and farther away from work. It creates a horrible work-living standard and effects quality family time greatly.” Sae-Tong bought the condominium while single but is moving to Sacramento to raise her family.

Three BMR’s Currently On Market

Adeline Place

3801 San Pablo Avenue #310, is a 556 sq. ft. unit being offered at $321,800. Household size must be three person maximum and restricted to “median” income buyers or lower.

Vue 46

1001 46th St Unit 323 is a 2 bedroom/2 bath 1680 sq. ft. unit and is being offered at $443,400. Household size must be 3 person minimum and up to 7 people maximum and is restricted to “moderate” incomes or lower.

The Terraces

5855 Horton St 728 is a 1 bedroom/1 bath 633 sq. ft. unit and is being offered at $340,900. Household size must be 3 people maximum and restricted to “moderate” incomes or lower.


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Mercury Reporting 2008 “recession level” Home Sales

The fed recently cut interest rates for the first time since the financial crisis of 2008. This is often a reaction to indicators of a slowing economy. Furthermore, per the San Jose Mercury News, data indicates the real estate market all over the bay area is close to 2008 “recession levels.”

Emeryville home prices are down 17% year-to-year and sales numbers have heavily declined as well. That said, well-marketed and priced homes are still selling fast with multiple offers and above asking price. Inventory is up slightly, but still well below what is needed to fill demand.

Median Rents Drop Slightly

Emeryville ranked as the sixth most expensive city to rent this month rising from the seventh spot in May. The price of one bedroom units increased 1.1% to a median of $2,860, while two bedrooms jumped 5.1% to $3,730. The full report can be read on Zumper.com.

Emeryville Real Estate Market Numbers for June 2019

May Sales Volume: Sales down 50% year to year

In June, there were only nine home sales, down -55% from the twenty in June of 2018 and a -47% decline from the 17 sales last month. June 2019 sales were at their lowest level compared to June of 2018 and 2017. YTD sales of 69 are running -2.8% behind last year’s year-to-date sales of 71.

Median and Average Sales Price: Prices drop further

Median Sales Price in June was $482,000, down -17.5% from $584,500 in June of 2018 and down -13.9% from $560,000 last month. The Average Sales Price in June was $540,000, down -15.3% from $637,200 in June of 2018 and down -7.4% from $583,412 last month. June 2019 ASP was at a mid range compared to June of 2018 and 2017.

 

Inventory and MSI: Inventory still too low, but slowly shifting

Total inventory of properties available for sale as of June was 13. Equal to the 13 properties listed last month and down -23.5% from the 17 in June of last year. June 2019 Inventory was at the lowest level compared to June of 2018 and 2017.

A comparatively lower MSI is more beneficial for sellers. A higher MSI is better for buyers. The June 2019 MSI of 1.4 months was at its highest level compared with June of 2018 and 2017.

Market Time: Homes sell in 22 days in average

Average Days On Market (DOM) shows how many days the average property is on the market before it sells. An upward trend in DOM tends to indicate a move towards more of a Buyer’s market. A downward trend indicates a move towards more of a Seller’s market. The DOM for June was 20, down -9.1% from 22 days last month and up 25.0% from 16 days in June of last year. The June 2019 DOM was at a mid range compared with June of 2018 and 2017.

 

Selling Price per Square Foot: Average is Dropping

Selling Price per Square Foot is a great indicator for the direction of Property values. Since Median Sales Price and Average Sales price can be impacted by the ‘mix’ of high or low end Properties in the market, the selling price per square foot is a more normalized indicator on the direction of Property values.

The June 2019 Selling Price per Square Foot of $634 was down -3.5% from $657 last month and down -5.5% from $671 in June of last year.

Selling Price vs. Listing Price: In average homes sell 5% over asking.

Selling Price vs Listing Price reveals the average amount that Sellers are agreeing to come down from their list price. The lower the ratio is below 100% the more of a Buyer’s market exists.  A ratio at or above 100% indicates more of a Seller’s market. The June 2019 Selling Price vs List Price of 104.6% was up from 102.7% last month and down from 110.0% in June of last year.

This report prepared by Coldwell Realtor Nicole Gruen. For help buying or selling your property Email her, call her at (510) 585-4444 or click on the banner below to search local listings. All Data deemed accurate, but not guaranteed.

Corrections: Post has been updated to reflect an inaccurate square footage in the Adeline Place unit as well as some details of the City of Emeryville Ownership BMR program.

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Nicole Gruen

Nicole Gruen is a top real estate agent at Coldwell Banker who specializes in the East Bay—especially in Emeryville where she lives. After working for 15+ years in Silicon Valley for companies like IBM, NVDIA, and Nestle, she transitioned to pursue real estate, which was a true passion for her. With her extensive knowledge of the East Bay markets, Nicole is a unique agent who combines her data-driven approach and people-first philosophy to help you buy, sell, and market homes with ease.

For more information, visit her website: www.eastbayreal.com

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